2025-2026 Fantasy Football: Best & Worst Value Picks for Your Draft

Fantasy Football 2025: Draft Steals & Busts

How I graded value

• ADP baseline: Live 12‑team PPR ADP from 7,000+ mock drafts run Aug 5–12, 2025.

• Rank/role checks & camp intel: ESPN’s constantly updated rankings/depth charts and training‑camp tour notes.

• Cross‑checks for sleepers/busts: Staff consensus sleeper/bust/breakout picks (ESPN) and model‑driven lists (CBS).

Best values (going too late for their upside)

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF — ADP 1.07 (late 1st)
   If CMC slips outside the top 5, you’re getting league‑winning touch share at a discount; ESPN still grades him as an elite RB1 in PPR.

2. Amon‑Ra St. Brown, WR, DET — ADP 2.01 (early 2nd)
   A bankable target hog who rarely leaves the field; if you open RB in Round 1, he’s the perfect anchor WR at cost.

3. Trey McBride, TE, ARI — ADP 3.07 (early 3rd)
   McBride’s usage and red‑zone outlook point to a locked‑in top‑3 TE—without paying the old‑guard tax on Kelce/Andrews.

4. Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC — ADP 2.12 (late 2nd)
   End of Round 2 price for a route‑winning volume magnet in an offense that just lost target competition; he already posted top‑20 receiving as a rookie.

5. Drake London, WR, ATL — ADP 2.06–2.08
   True alpha metrics and improved QB situation make him a clean WR1 bet in the mid‑2nd.

6. Jayden Daniels, QB, WSH — ADP 3.08 (Round 3)
   In 6‑pt combined TD formats his rushing floor is a cheat code; if you want an early QB, his ceiling rivals Allen/Hurts at a cheaper pick.

7. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC — mid rounds
   ESPN tags him a sleeper again; stable role in the league’s best red‑zone offense keeps him underpriced.

8. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND — mid rounds
   Volume king who keeps out‑kicking his ADP every year; flagged by ESPN as a sleeper.

9. J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN — late QB1/prime bench
   Multiple ESPN analysts tab him a sleeper thanks to Kevin O’Connell’s QB‑friendly scheme and elite pass‑catchers (Jefferson/Hockenson/Addison). Perfect upside QB2 who can become your every‑week starter.

10. Ashton Jeanty, RB, LV — ADP 1.11 (late 1st)
    Rookie risk, sure—but he’s set up for a feature role right away with minimal backfield competition; if you pick late, Jeanty + elite WR start plays beautifully.

11. Brock Bowers, TE, LV — ADP 3.03
    If you miss McBride, Bowers gives you similar weekly ceiling at near‑round parity and is already priced below his likely usage spike.

12. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI — ADP 2.09–2.10
    Slipping to the late‑2nd despite bankable elite efficiency; camp notes suggest a Barkley‑centric start but Philly’s pass game remains intact.

Worst values (priced near ceilings or with red flags)

1. Baker Mayfield, QB, TB — flagged bust
   Being drafted around QB6–QB7 means you’re paying for a repeat of a career year while losing OC Liam Coen and navigating WR age/health concerns.

2. James Cook, RB, BUF — flagged bust
   ADP hovers around RB10‑RB12 despite a 2024 touchdown spike that screams regression, plus goal‑line vultures from Josh Allen and more Ray Davis.

3. Travis Kelce / Mark Andrews, TE — flagged busts
   Name value keeps the tag high, but both are aging, with target competition and durability trending the wrong way; McBride/Bowers offer better price‑to‑ceiling.

4. Rashee Rice, WR, KC — flagged bust
   Coming off LCL surgery and competing with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown; ADP assumes a target share that isn’t guaranteed.

5. Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI — flagged bust
   Round‑1/2 cost with uncertainty about receiving volume in a Barkley‑heavy but still Hurts‑centric red‑zone offense; price bakes in little room for slippage.

6. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR — flagged bust
   Elite 2024 usage, but current ADP assumes repeat health/role while the Rams add depth; analysts are wary of durability and role squeeze.

7. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ — flagged bust
   Priced like a slam‑dunk WR1 while QB/efficiency volatility persists; analysts caution against paying full freight.

8. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO — flagged bust
   Three‑down days are fading and the price still assumes vintage receiving volume.

9. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA — flagged bust
   TD‑driven weekly volatility and cost that assumes a target‑share bump that may not arrive.

10. Joe Mixon, RB, HOU — flagged bust
    Age/volume profile at his ADP is thin margin for error; cheaper three‑down bets exist in the same range.

Late‑round darts (sleepers to stash)

• Isiah Pacheco (again), Jaylen Warren, Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Michael Penix Jr., Colston Loveland/Tyler Warren (TE) — all specifically named as 2025 sleepers by ESPN’s panel; they make ideal bench upside swings in the double‑digit rounds.

Quick draft plan (12‑team PPR)

• Rounds 1–2: Prioritize a hero RB (CMC/Jeanty) or double‑anchor WR (Amon‑Ra + London/McConkey) based on board.

• Rounds 3–5: Scoop McBride/Bowers, then add upside WRs; consider Daniels if you want an early QB.

• Rounds 6+: Hammer sleepers from the list above; avoid overpaying for brand‑name vets the ESPN panel tagged as busts.